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“There will be those pissants who will want to urinate over everyone else’s freedoms and in that doing will use the very document that decrees freedom. To impede any attempt to do so, those who seek to take away the rights of others shall then have those same rights seized from them forthwith.”
~Thomas Jefferson

The Indonesian campaign is getting to its interesting bits. Three days to the polls, it’s time to decide for things. I’ve always been inclined for Mr. Yudhoyono but I now think it’s worth looking for an alternative. It’s simple really, I don’t think Mr. Yudhoyono can deliver.

One would probably say the other candidates similarly promised fairy tales. May be so – but in Mr. Yudhoyono’s case, his promises could easily be compared against his records. It’s the fine line between ambitious and negligence.

First off, the economy. Economy is the debate in this election when SBY announced his pick of running mate, Mr. Boediono, an economist. He was relative unknown and mostly non partisan with experience in previous cabinets. By all appearances this pair looks the most convincing. Almost presidential.

The record of Mr. SBY’s last five years is patchy at best. Ndoro Kakung has a summary of the economic indicators so you can check for yourself. For GDP growth The Government consistently missed the targets in all of the last four years.

Mr. SBY probably realized this and recruited Boediono from the Central Bank. While the impeccable Boediono is probably a very smart man, the Bank of Indonesia isn’t exactly a bastion of integrity. As a Bank, despite cutting interest rate for eight months in a row to 6.75%, the consumer rate remains more or less the same.

The central bank is a murky institution presently run by a successions of board members and senior officials, many of them, including a presidential in law, currently behind bars for graft and bribery and whatnots.

Where credentials go, the Governor of the central bank is probably not such an it job.

Finance Minister Sri Mulyani was asked in a Metro TV interview recently, if Indonesia could really perform better than 5%, as campaigned by the candidates. She seemed almost instinctively responding to the question with just a slight sense of urgency. She said the system needs a good set of rules in place. This is of course, up to the Parliament with which she said she had, “outstanding relationship.” Next was a consistent and fair enforcement of those rules. She is responsible for the economic policy and the Department of Finance so she would continue to do her job. The Finance Minister eased back a little before naming the third and said, “Luck.” Sri Mulyani suggested that we all pray for the better chance of getting it right.

The problem of getting it right is of course, you will eventually be out of business. She submitted her resignation once and was very nearly fired. The cabinet serves at the pleasure of the President but what if the President couldn’t get his cabinet to work together?

Economy isn’t just about fiscal and tax policy. On the last campaign SBY (and Kalla) promised “mega infrastructure projects” If Mr. President had managed to build a better public transport system Jakarta probably wouldn’t be halted up for his campaign rally yesterday. Five years ago, there was a promise for an enormous housing infrastructure: 1000 towers of cheap subsidized housing. How many of those got built: 5.
Or six, whatever, can’t remember but it’s nowhere damn near a thousand.

If Sri Mulyani was probably being modest, I think she was more likely being honest. It’s wonderful that it works but we still all need to pray.

In any event, the President now has his very own celebrity economist he’s probably not too worried about it.

The campaign’s other message is integrity. President SBY is totally committed to fighting corruption. There’s even a book about it. The KPK had done the wonderful job of delivering a steady stream of arresting headlines. It’s amazing how many big fish a single institution can do in one news cyle. The vibrant Indonesian press is literally tripping over for scoops on arrests these days.

In annual terms, the number’s closer to 40 forty cases a year with KPK’s current administration capacity. Multiply that with the number of crooks stupid enough to get arrested to feed the press junkie and you have an efficient approval churning machine. Compare the number to the number of crooks currently in the wild and you will see an institutional experiment in integrity.

Accountants call it slight rounding error - in the bigger scheme of things, fighting corruption in Indonesia is far from job well done.

By most measures however, KPK performs better than what was expected of them. The special body lends credibility to the leadership institution in this country. It gives meaning to justice and respect for the law and, for the first time in memory for most Indonesians, it gives hopes. By doing its job, KPK restored and reintroduced a sense of trust in the most corrupt country in the world and opened the way for more functioning and rewarding state. After decades of abuse by its leadership, it’s a nice and happy feeling.
The problem with getting things right this time however, is a more brutal and rude awakening for everyone. The once over popular KPK Chief is at the moment going to trial for masterminding an assassination of a big wig CEO, mafia style, after a complicated and scandalous affair involving a cutish golf caddy, a billionaire, a high ranking police officer and six goons on motorbikes with a backup team to clean up. I can’t be making this stuff up.

In a deliberate and vicious twist of the murder investigation – and somewhat buried under the election media circus - is the threat of criminal investigation of more KPK deputies, by the Indonesian Police Department. During the investigation of the murder case, the Police discovered that the victim and the mistress were both included in a set of numbers monitored by the KPK. Its senior officials were aware of this and now treated as persons of interests. What the Police really alludes here is that the murder was an institutional conduct, probably ran by some evil cabal and they’re bent in dismantling it.

The Police of course, suggested nothing of the sort. They were only pursuing their investigation, they said. Also, in a parallel twist, they have just learned that one of their own was allegedly wiretapped with a potentially very embarrassing – and probably criminal – conversation. Someone, somewhere, is running an illegal wiretap on the Police and the 3 star general promised a criminal investigation. How the murder investigation becomes one about illegal wiretapping is really, well, I’ve no idea. It just happens.

KPK’s authority to monitor suspicious numbers and investigate is clearly specified in laws and not without precedents. Audio records of phone conversation were used several times in court and everyone was more than happy to accept it – the police, the AGO, the court, the parliament, the ministries, the government and the public at large. Now that a Police general is tapped, the Police wants a criminal investigation? It just sounds very icky.

Considering that the chairman of the committee is already in jail, a mere threat of criminal investigation at that level really should require a higher degree of public scrutiny of the conducts and motives of those involved. If you think that a systematic attempt to dismantle KPK – and ongoing anti-corruption efforts – might seem a little farfetched, then look again (update: Tempo runs it on the cover this week).

Indeed, a lot of people, would probably speculate to do away with the whole KPK thing altogether. KPK made enough enemies in its sensationally brief history, many people would be happier to put an end to this out of control experiment. The election makes a perfect timing: everyone can campaign on the glorious days of putting thieves and crooks behind bars and make sure that such grievances won’t happen again in the future.

If SBY is sincerely committed to combating corruption then the circumstances really show a vastly different picture to wonderful campaign tunes. Like I said, I can’t make this stuff up.

The vengeful DPR took the first jab in attacking the wounded KPK by suggesting that it suspended any further ‘strategic decision” until a new anti-corruption czar is found and installed. Technically, of course, Chief of KPK must go through DPR so the honourable members are probably inclined to wait it out until the next term.

The anti corruption laws are currently due for renewal and the dateline is approaching fast. DPR needs a new set of laws to replace the existing ones or KPK (and the special anti corruption court) will be in a legal limbo. With Antasari in prison, the KPK is left decapitated and to function only with the remaining four deputies and now, an expiry date set right after the election.

DPR is in recess at the moment and unlikely to get the job done in time. SBY promised that he will issue an executive order if and when the time comes, but well, that is so conveniently past the vote counts and really, does Indonesia really want to go back to the days of Executive Orders?

SBY-Kalla government keeps a sufficient block in the parliament for the last five years (and still do ) they are supposedly equally committed to fighting corruption and yet they could not get the job done. Indeed, the DPR was in session last week and heard busy debating the next chairmanship – Partai Demokrat naturally wanting it for the winner of the election.

No less than the President himself made a statement in Kompas, seemingly worried about the ‘unchecked authority of the KPK’. If the soundbite was probably taken out of context, the timing couldn’t be tricker. A nosy audit was initiated and caught the headlines for a few days before quickly retreating back, KPK is already regularly audited and a number of external auditors are attached to its daily functions.

The Police is probably the most persistent – though I suspect AGO to jump into the fray pretty soon. In a Tempo interview this week, Susno Duadji proudly claim that he could bring down KPK, “this very evening.” If so he wishes. A police general is making an announcement that he could bring down KPK in one evening – two evening before people go to the polls. I’m scratching heads how this could even happen.

It is indeed, a sad state of affairs. While all three candidates dole out campaign promises like fortune cookies, SBY and Jusuf Kalla are set apart because they are also the sitting government. The President and his Vice President are first and foremost, responsible for running the country. Their campaign promises are hold to higher degree of scrutiny because voters and citizens can and will simply compare those promises to their action.

SBY promises Indonesia progress. One that will no longer be hindered and stalled by economic and political interests. Somewhat with a reformed and better functioning bureaucracy. One that could do better than others even in the best of times.
Lapindo is still a mess and the nation’s central bank is riddled in so many scandals, the directors were convicted of looting their ‘legal expenses’. He promises clean government and integrity while at the same time practically shutting down the whole anti corruption infrastructure in this country.

With this, they think they can run the country at 4.6%. Is it a wonder at all that everybody else say they can do better?


UPDATE: There's an article on The Economist on the Indonesian election, it reads more or less the same but maybe interesting for those of you who read the smart stuff.